Sea level is rising. Coastlines will shift in ways that cause major geographic, real estate and financial impacts. For each foot of sea level rise, the ocean can move up to a mile inland. In the aftermath of the devastation caused by Hurricane Sandy on the East Coast we all need to understand this phenomenon, the property impacts, and how to adapt.

In his brand new book High Tide on Main Street, author and oceanographer John Englander
takes the mystery out of all the science, policies, engineering and
technology and takes a pragmatic look at what this means to land values,
as well as social, government and personal action.

Avoiding scientific jargon, he clearly explains the surprising factors of sea level rise (SLR) and why it will rise for hundreds of years, regardless of what we do about greenhouse gases.

“Sandy is just part of a looming coastal crisis. It is a harbinger of a new era of sea level rise, extreme tides and storm surge,” Englander says. “The devastating economic effects will not be limited to the coasts. We have to start adapting to a new world now”.

Sea level changes will directly impact communities and individuals living within the range of a rising sea in numerous ways. There is a direct impact on the future value of land near or at the coast. Rising sea level will eventually have catastrophic impacts on the physical, economic, and societal infrastructures essential for the well being of our economy. From ports and navy bases, to power plants and refineries, coastal rail lines and airports, we are critically dependent on vast coastal infrastructure. These are the very services and facilities essential for our society to function.

CO2, global average temperature and sea level are increasing and there’s no stopping it

Englander looks at sea level change in historical context first, explaining that it moves more than 300 feet up and down with every ice age, approximately every 100,000 years. The recent low spot was 20,000 years ago, when it was 390 feet below present. 120,000 years ago it was 26 feet higher than now. The past is the key to seeing the future as in all geology. As the ice sheets melt over the next few centuries sea level will eventually reach at least 65 ft. higher, and when all the ice melts – again – Sea levels will be 212 feet higher, though that could be a few thousand years away.

“We have been fooled by the fact that sea level has not changed much for 6,000 years,” he writes. “That was a brief plateau in the natural cycle. We need to see where it is heading, to understand how to prepare.”

The Synchronous Move of Sea Level, Temperature, and CO2, With the Recent CO2 Moving Off the Charts.

Property values will go underwater long before the property actually goes underwater.

As coastal vulnerability becomes more obvious, the premium prices of waterfront will start to be discounted, being treated more like leasehold land, than something you leave in your estate. That could start this decade.

We need to face the reality that the ocean has started on a new phase of long term rise and need to embrace a realistic program of adaptation. If the ocean is going to be 5 or 10 meters higher over the next century or two, or even more, we need to start thinking about how we can adapt.

The efforts of beach restoration, sea walls, and sandbags for storms may work in some places for the short term. But once we confront and accept the longer term view, we need to think appropriately about taking actions like elevating buildings, requiring serious setbacks for oceanfront property, and bold engineering, like sea walls and major levee control systems, for Chesapeake Bay or San Francisco Bay in the US, or at the Straits of Gibraltar for the Mediterranean.

“Intelligent Adaptation” — a Five Point Roadmap to the Future.

The more we know about the scale of sea level rise in the decades ahead, the better we can plan for it. The change has started and will be much more obvious by mid-century. It demands honest discussion and practical long-term community planning.

Englander’s recommendations cover five critical areas. For each there are a suite of options and social and financial issues that he suggests need to be considered. His recommendations include:

1. Acting with a long term perspective, to get the best return on investment (ROI). If you just anticipate a foot of SLR, you will build a certain kind of defense. But once it becomes clear that the rise will eventually get to 5 feet and higher, that initial defense may be worthless. Better to build the foundation and strategy for the longer term situation, to invest in the future.

2. Recognizing there will be a range of projections this century for SLR — just like economic or crop projections. Don’t wait for an exact number to begin to plan and act.

3. Considering the geology and topography at each location. Geologically New York City or at least Manhattan has a plus in that the rock is granite and gneiss, impermeable rocks that can be protected with seawalls. Miami cannot be saved due to the Achilles Heel of porous limestone. Sandy demonstrated that the challenge for NYC is that the topography topside and underwater funnels storm surge, raising its level substantially.

4. Recognizing the finite future of government bailouts for coastal real estate. We can spend a few hundred billion rebuilding New Orleans; Venice can spend six billion dollars on their adjustable “MOSE” gates, but these are myopic solutions. When it becomes clear that sea level rise is not a random location event, and will eventually destroy all coastal property, governments will stop compensating people, since no government has enough money to cover all coastal developments and impacts.

5. Anticipating property devaluation. Very soon common sense will have us depreciating or amortizing the value of coastal property, recognizing that it has a limited, though perhaps long life, like a building. This will have a huge financial impact, affecting companies, communities, and governments (tax bases.) Once the awareness becomes clear, values will start to decrease. Perhaps not too rapidly, but they will come down. But it is always better to choose your timing to sell, if you know an asset will depreciate, rather than appreciate over the long term.

Personal actions property owners should take now and In the near future

1. Look at your investments, particularly real estate. Make adjustments before the crowd catches on.

2. Look at your community, with a broader view to impacts. Identify not only which land and property might be flooded, but consider the infrastructure and the effects from surrounding communities being devastated or eliminated.

3. Try to see the big picture and get involved politically. Demand that our leaders take this seriously. This is the ultimate issue of ethics, morality, and responsibility for future generations.

We all need to understand the truth about this issue that will change the face of the planet.

This is not a hoax and should not be a political issue. The great ice sheets are melting for the first time in millions of years. Ice melts at 32 degrees, regardless of anyone’s political views. Melting ice means higher sea level. These are changes that will last for thousands of years, making them effectively permanent.

High Tide on Main Street
John Englander

List $19.95

Paperback: 244 pages

Publisher: The Science Bookshelf

Official Publication date October 22, 2012

Language: English

ISBN-10: 0615637957 ISBN-13: 978-0615637952

For more information visit www.HighTideonMailStreet.com or www.johnenglander.net

Book Description:
Sea level will rise for at least 1,000 years. Shorelines will shift significantly by 2050. Property values may start to decline this decade. Rising sea level is the most profound long-term aspect of climate change. Yet, the public is almost completely unaware of the magnitude of the problem. For three million years sea level regularly moved up and down almost 400 feet with the ice age cycles. Now, after 6,000 years of minimal change, we are entering a new era of rapid sea level rise. In clear, easy-to-understand language, this book explains: The science behind sea level rise, plus the myths and partial truths used to confuse the issue; the surprising forces that will cause sea level to rise for 1,000 years, as well as the possibility of catastrophic rise this century; why the devastating economic effects will not be limited to the coasts; why coastal property values will go “underwater” long before the land does, perhaps as early as this decade; five points of “intelligent adaptation” that can help individuals, businesses, and communities protect investments now and in the future.